Winnipeg’s crossover is a historically low-probability path, not a neutral 9-9 vs. 9-9 mat

The Bombers (9-9) visit Toronto (9-9) in the Eastern Semi-Final, but West Division teams are 5-8 all-time in that game and no crossover team has ever reached the Grey Cup. That 38.5% historical hit rate puts Winnipeg’s path through Toronto and likely Montreal (14-4) in stark terms. The Bombers’ 34-10 Week 21 win is poor evidence for playoff form: it came with BC resting Nathan Rourke and eight other offensive starters, and Winnipeg trailed until late in the third quarter.