With a 55% success rate on two-point attempts since 2015 (per Derek Taylor), the expected value of going for two (1.1 points) exceeds the guaranteed one-point kick (1.0). Trailing 26-25 on the road, O'Shea's decision to kick forced overtime, where the Bombers lost 32-26—effectively forfeiting a 55% chance to win in regulation for a coin-flip in OT.
🔬 ANALYTICS / GAME THEORY
O'Shea's conservative convert call defied league-wide expected value.
September 09, 2026 · 08:00 PM · AI-synthesized analysis
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